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Dwarkesh Podcast 2026-10-22-1

What will computer chips look like in 2045?

Intel's Ranade says process technology is within a few percent of TSMC, and the gap that matters is scale and on-time ramps. ASML builds fewer than 100 EUV machines a year, leading-edge output could reach about 2x with existing tool supply rather than 10x, and a tool ordered today lands in 2028. That timeline means 2030 supply is largely being decided by orders placed now, which is the constraint the Empires of AI piece and the CME contracts both sit on top of.

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dwarkeshintelsemiconductorstsmcasmlcompute-supply-chaininfrastructure-bottleneckai-capex-cyclememory-marketpodcastai-capital-cycle
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AI infrastructure capexMarket concentrationHardware fragmentationVertical IntegrationSupply Constraint Economics
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infrastructure-bottleneckai-capex-cycleai-capital-cycle
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2026-03-18-12026-04-21-22026-03-28-32026-03-17-32026-10-16-32026-04-14-12026-03-31-m22026-10-16-12026-10-16-w2
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The Deep View 2026-05-07-1

OpenAI MRC Protocol: What Gets Open-Sourced Is the Non-Moat

What frontier labs open-source is a map of the non-moats. OpenAI released its GPU networking protocol through OCP with Microsoft, AMD, Broadcom, NVIDIA, and Intel as coalition partners, two years in development, already running at Stargate's Abilene site and used to train GPT-5.5. The corollary lands hardest for Microsoft: they have the protocol, run it on Fairwater, and still ship mid-class models, which means networking efficiency was never the binding constraint.

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ai-infrastructureai-economicsprotocol-standardizationai-1.0-defensibilitycompute-moatsgpu-infrastructureopenaimicrosoftbroadcomnvidiahyperscalerreliabilityopen-modelsintelamdai-infrastructure-capexinfrastructure-bottleneckstargateevalrigpickrig
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OpenAIMicrosoftAMDBroadcomNVIDIAIntelOpen Compute ProjectMRC ProtocolSRv6StargateOracle AbileneMicrosoft FairwaterGPT-5.5Mark HandleyGreg SteinbrecherMustafa Suleyman
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ai-economicsai-1.0-defensibilityreliability
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2026-03-19-12026-04-14-12026-03-25-32026-03-11-12026-05-05-12026-04-17-w12026-04-04-32026-04-07-22026-04-17-22026-05-01-12026-05-01-22026-05-01-32026-05-04-22026-05-06-3
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The Economist 2026-04-29-1

AI is confronting a supply-chain crunch

Hyperscaler capex grew 190% from 2024 to 2026; their hardware suppliers grew 45%. That gap is why every throttling notice, plan change, and Sora shutdown traces back to the same constraint. The less-discussed dimension: agentic systems need 1 CPU per GPU versus 1:12 for chatbots, which is why Intel has doubled in six months and why every agent platform deck needs a CPU supply slide.

# tags
ai-economicsai-infrastructureai-infrastructure-capexhyperscalercompute-moatsinference-cost-economicsagentic-ai-viabilityinfrastructure-bottlenecktsmcnvidiaintelhbmmemory-chipssupply-chainsupply-chain-riskpricing-modelsai-infrastructure-financeagent-execution-substratepricingthe-economist
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The EconomistAnthropicOpenAIAmazonGoogleMicrosoftMetaOracleTSMCNVIDIAIntelSK HynixSamsungMicronGitHubOpenRouterSemiAnalysisMorgan StanleySam AltmanElon MuskC.C. WeiAndy JassyIvan ChiamH100TrainiumHBMTurboQuantTerafab
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ai-infrastructure-capexcompute-scarcityagent-execution-substrate
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2026-03-31-m22026-04-14-12026-03-20-32026-03-20-w22026-04-17-w12026-03-11-22026-03-13-w32026-04-13-22026-04-21-32026-04-25-22026-04-26-22026-04-27-1
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