Dwarkesh Podcast 2026-10-22-1
What will computer chips look like in 2045?
Intel's Ranade says process technology is within a few percent of TSMC, and the gap that matters is scale and on-time ramps. ASML builds fewer than 100 EUV machines a year, leading-edge output could reach about 2x with existing tool supply rather than 10x, and a tool ordered today lands in 2028. That timeline means 2030 supply is largely being decided by orders placed now, which is the constraint the Empires of AI piece and the CME contracts both sit on top of.