Private Credit's Exposure to Ailing Software Industry Is Bigger Than Advertised
Blue Owl's reported software exposure is 11.6%; the actual figure, built company by company, is 21% — and BMC Software is sitting inside a bucket called 'business services.' The classification gap matters less as an accounting curiosity and more as a structural problem: if sector labels bend this far under pressure, the risk models built on top of them are measuring something adjacent to reality rather than reality itself. The same dynamic runs through the AI detection piece — five tools, one column, a 60-point spread in outputs — and through ICONIQ's retention data, where the metric everyone optimized (new logos) turns out to be the wrong one to watch. Morgan Stanley's finding that software borrowers carry the highest leverage ratios in private credit is the number that should focus attention: concentration is the visible risk, but it's the measurement system that determines whether anyone acts on it in time.