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consensus-positioning

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Freddie deBoer (Substack) 2026-10-21-1

Four Direct, Reasonable, and Important AI Questions (Which the AI People Will Ignore)

deBoer holds AI maximalists to their own yardstick and finds daily life in 2026 barely distinguishable from 2021. His best argument is that cancer is limited by tumor recurrence, toxicity and patient dropout, and curing every cancer would add only about three years of life expectancy. That sets the ceiling for Schmidt's claim that disease could be cured in 15-20 years: where the constraint is physical, faster thinking buys little.

Arnaud Bertrand (Substack) 2026-10-21-3

What's left for us after AI? China's thinkers have very different answers

Bertrand argues the Western fear of AI rests on a culturally specific premise that intelligence is what makes us human, as in Homo sapiens. Liu Yongmou inverts it: humanity's biggest problem is the machinization of humans, not the humanization of machines. If coordination work is the first to go, as in Schmidt's flattened firms, the open question is what remains of a person's worth once usefulness is no longer the measure.