RCA — tisram

Albert Bridge Capital 2026-05-04-1

'Til Death Do Us Part

Drew Dickson stacks four cycles (1840s UK railroads, 1870s US railroads, 1920s RCA, 1990s internet) and the drawdown receipts are unimpeachable: RCA -98% in three years, Cisco -90%, Amazon -95%, the entire Nasdaq -78%. The fresher data point is structural, not historical: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF moves $3B a day in flows, equal to the entire daily volume of the French stock market. The actionable read is not bull-versus-bear; it is that operational AI capability and AI equity prices are about to decouple for 12-24 months, and the buy list worth writing today is the application-layer companies positioned to inherit stranded compute at 20 cents on the dollar in 2029.

# tags

ai-bubble valuation behavioral-finance historical-analogy ai-capex-cycle market-volatility ai-economics fundamentals narrative-capex-feedback bubble-risk ai-1.0-defensibility albert-bridge-capital drew-dickson etf-flows capital-formation

Wall Street Journal 2026-05-03-2

What the 1920s Can Teach Us About Surviving the AI Revolution

The 1920s analogy has reached WSJ-anniversary-feature status: late-cycle consensus comfort framing. The half everyone leans on (spillover jobs, society absorbs) is the structurally weakest part of the analog; electrification reached 68 percent of US homes by 1930, but TFP gains showed up 1948-1973. If that lag is the right template, current AI public-market multiples are pricing 1925-style payback for a 1955 timeline: patient-capital infrastructure thesis stays intact, application-layer SaaS multiple expansion does not.

# tags

ai-economics ai-adoption-patterns narrative-analysis ai-political-economy ai-policy ai-regulation pilot-to-scale wsj ai-labor-displacement skill-revaluation ai-and-human-capacity historical-analogy