bessen

You Are Not a Horse: AI and the Future of Labor Demand

The AI displacement debate keeps confusing labor share with labor demand. Albrecht's three-channel decomposition shows the horse outcome requires substitution dominating scale at task level, AI dominating every sector spending migrates to, and consumers stopping their drift toward human-intensive activities: all three must break simultaneously. The likely 2026 to 2030 steady state is total employment growing while productivity gains flow to capital, and most operating models are not designed to plan for both at once.